Yayin Tarihi: 15 Ocak/January 1998
TURKEY'S PLACE IN THE NEW ARCHITECTURE OF EUROPE
An Updated Assessment
By
Mehmet ÖGÜTÇÜ
Jean Monnet Fellow
October 1992 Bruges & Paris
I. INTRODUCTION
There has been a noticeable lack of scholarly research on Turkey. In view of its sizeable population and landmass and given its continuing importance over four decades as both a strategically vital member of the Western Alliance and as a burgeoning economic & trade partner, this may seem surprising. Turkey does not fit into any neat geographical or linguistic categories, and so is consistently and unjustifiably ignored by European researchers. This picture appears, however, to be changing with the emergence of Turkey as a country which is poised to play an influential regional leadership role after the Gulf War and the dismemberment of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. The 1987 application for full membership has also played a role in prompting the Europeanists to face up the reality of Turkey and look into it from the new perspective that it warrants. In order to present a fairly updated analysis, we have made an extensive use of daily newspaper reports, commentaries, journal articles and books. Interviews, too, have proved to be useful and extremely rewarding. We are using these sources to analyze how the relative advantages of Turkish membership for both the EC and Turkey have changed over time, particularly since 1987, in what state they stand presently and what the future holds.
Turkey lies in Asia and yet its best-known part and business capital is situated in the European landmass. It is a Mediterranean country, yet its Black Sea shores are just as long. When one looks at the geographic location of Turkey, its unique aspects may be better understood. In its west lies the Balkans, to the north-east one finds the Trans-Caucasia (Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia) and beyond that the new republics of what used to be the Soviet Union. It has common sea borders with Romania, Ukraine and Russia. To the east lies Iran and the countries of the Middle East (Syria and Iraq) border Turkey in the south. It is essential to bear in mind this unique geographical position when considering Turkey's place in the new architecture of Europe. Turkey is a large country by any standards - it has a greater geographical area (France and Germany combined together) and will eventually have a bigger population than any Community member state (approximately 60 mn in 1991, projected to reach 70 mn by the year 2000). Its enormous size is perhaps the root cause of most problems encountered in the Turco-Community relations. It may therefore be misleading to compare Turkey with the relatively small EC countries such as Portugal and Greece as the Turks quite often do.
Turkey today is the largest industrial base between Austria and China, strategically located as it does at the crossroads of Europe and Asia. There is a growing optimism over Turkey's economic future. The last decade has witnessed a drastic change in the Turkish economy, which has accomplished a series of structural reforms towards liberalization, deregulation and the establishment and reorganization of the market for the creation of a fair and competitive environment. This has enabled the efficient allocation of the resources in the economy and a better integration with the rest of the world within the framework of globalization. Ankara embarked upon this course at a time when the "Berlin Wall" was still intact, when the international economic climate was not particularly conducive to such sweeping reforms and when it was not receiving, as is still the case now, any significant financial assistance whatsoever from its partners in the Community. Since 1980 the transformation process has produced a remarkable performance: GDP has increased by 5.5 % a year (average for the period 1981-90), compared with 2.0 % a year on average for the Twelve; exports have increased very rapidly and their structure has been diversified with 80 % of exports now manufactured products; total trade volume amounted to about $ 33,6 bn last year with exports of $ 13.6 bn and imports worth $ 20.2 bn. Turkey is expected to export $ 17 bn in 1993 against imports of $ 25.8 bn. Policy-makers in Ankara point to foreign investment that will this year reach $ 1.1 bn, almost double the 1991 level and to growing foreign interest in Turkey's strategy for streamlining the economy by radical privatisation of sectors like energy and transportation. Turkish ventures abroad have mushroomed, investing half a billion dollars in 266 different projects in the six months of 1992. Tourism has become one of the high-flying sectors in the economy as tourism revenues correspond to 25 percent of her total foreign exchange earnings. Turkey's emergence as an international trading nation is also forcing once protected manufacturers to adapt or perish. They are faced with the challenge to increase efficiency to become more competitive in major world markets. They defend the view that the combination of a fast- track GNP growth rate of 7 to 9 percent and a reduction of the high birth rate is bringing Turkey into line with the economies of the EC's southern member states. Turkey's reduction of customs duties in favour of the EC and its alignment to the Com,mon Customs Tariffs of the Community, according to a 1988 accelerated timetable, in order to attain the Customs Union by 1995 and the conclusion of a free trade agreement with the EFTA countries are no doubt strong indication of the integrative capability of the Turkish economy with the outside world. We should add to this its leadership role in such regional integration initiatives as the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Zone and the Economic Cooperation Organization.
However, countries undergoing such a sweeping transformation inevitably suffer pains. Turkey is no exception. In spite of the significant progress achieved so far, there is however still a substantial development gap between the Community and Turkey, such that a comparison of GDP per head reveals that purchasing power in Turkey is one third of the Community average. This gap, which does not seem likely to be reduced rapidly, given the rapid population growth in Turkey and in spite of efforts to slow it down, is also reflected in the breakdown of employment. 48 % of the labour force is today employed in agriculture as opposed to 70 % in 1970 (still about five times the EC average). Policy makers are confronted with the formidable task of bringing the economy back on to a course of stronger growth that not only raises the average standard of living of the population but which is also sufficient to absorb the rapidly rising labour force while at the same time tackling the perennialproblem of persistently high inflation. And the reduction of the high public sector deficit, particularly through privatization, must play a pivotal role in this effort.
A new political mood is also prevalent in Ankara. The new centre & social democrat coalition government, led by Suleyman Demirel, seems much less anxious than its predecessors that Turkey should take part in the Community at any price and on any terms. The recent statements by Turkish leaders indicate that Turkey wants to join the fold of the EC club as a "dignified and worthy partner" on equal footing and not as a "burdensome country" feared to drain the Community resources. The problem is how to achieve this commendable goal. They acknowledge the necessity for Turkey to put its house in order before embarking upon the road to the full Community membership. The increasing number of new generation Turkish officials and politicians, who have become accustomed with the way the Community machinery operates, has come to realize that many problems await to be overcome and much progress, particularly in the economy, has to be made before Turkey could take on and bear the competitive burden of surviving inside the Community (The traumatic experience of Greece serves as a useful reminder in this respect). And they are also aware of the fact that the EC is, in the meantime, not standing still.
The collapse of the Soviet Union, followed by the Yugo-disintegration, has brought in a new dimension to the Turco-Community relationship. Some would argue that such a fragmented architecture that is still taking shape holds many perils for Turkey, but it also brings the promise of an influential role as the leader of the countries around the Black Sea, throughout the Caucasus region and the Central Asia. Turkey has suddenly become a pole of stability for the unsettled nations of the Balkans and for the Trans-Caucasian and the Central Asian Republics that were formerly part of the Soviet Union. For many years, Turkey's ambition to be a member of the Community has been the unchallenged central feature of its foreign policy; but there now appear to be significantly different views of Turkey's future relationship with the Community. Turkey's emerging role as a regional power and as an important "bulwark" role for the Community against the post-Soviet instability is perhaps one of the reasons for the new government's more relaxed approach vis-a-vis the EC -- another reason might be its rapid elevation to a leadership status in regional integration initiatives in that area. The Community membership is no longer seen as a 'romantic' goal in itself, but as a means to take its rightful place in the European economic, political and defence integration -- a natural extension of its centuries-old European vocation. To get into the EC, Turkey has both to show that it can meet the political and economic qualifications of the Community and - unlike earlier applicants such as Greece, Spain and Portugal - pilot its way through a maze of political difficulties (one of which being the EP) and some downright hostility, particularly that of its neighbour, Greece.
Since Turkey can no longer remain content with the evasive answer it received in 1989 to its full membership application, the Community has to make up its mind and give a clear-cut message to Ankara, positive or negative, thus overcoming the often-criticised lack of clarity about Turkey. Given the pace of drastic political and economic developments both in Turkey and in Europe and beyond, the Community's 1989 response to Ankara's request of accession falls short of fully reflecting the actual performance and value of Turkey as a prospective member. Thus, a re-assessment of the added value of Turkey for the Community becomes imperative in the context of the current enlargement debate. The Community will understandably have great difficulty in its endeavour to formulate a clear- cut and feasible position, which has to respond, at one stroke, both the Turkish ambitions and the express worries of the member states as well as those of the Community institutions. It appears that the question will be to define what are the benefits which both sides expect from membership and the costs to be incurred and then, to see if there are any alternative formulae (short of immediate full membership), which would give some or all of the benefits of the accession whilst reducing its perceived costs. It is generally anticipated that the EC policy-makers will come out with an 'indigenious' formulation envisaging a 'sui generis' status in the EC for the Turks - something between the full membership and the second generation 'Europe' Agreements because anything less than such a status may not satisfy the oldest Associate and the first applicant country, which has a vocation for full membership by virtue of the rights and obligations emanating from the 1963 Association Agreement and the 1970 Complementary Protocol ratified by the respective Parliaments of Turkey and the EC member states. This incontestably puts it on an entirely different plane vis-a-vis other applicants as well as prospective candidates. Since Turkey represents a unique case markedly different from other membership candidates in terms of its economic, political, military, geo-strategic and cultural assets, an imaginative and novel approach is needed to fill in the content of such an unprecedented status, just short of immediate membership, to satisfy both the expectations of the Community and the long-cherished aspirations of Turkey.
Now few words on the general outline of the paper. The paper is divided into five main chapters. We shall first attempt to place Turkey in a European perspective, starting with a brief historic overview of the nearly 700 year-old relationship between Turkey and Europe and come up till 1987 when it filed a historic application for full membership. Turkey's place in the new architecture of Europe cannot be comprehended without due elaboration of what today's European configuration looks like and what shape it may take in the future. The end of the Cold War era, changed patterns of balance of power, Germany's ambivalent new role, security environment, current debate on future enlargement will be the primary concern of the third chapter. An updated - and hopefully objective - assessment of what have happened since Turkey's 1987 membership application and of the relevance of the new European architecture to Turkey's quest for accession will be the main subjects of discussion in the fourth chapter. The Turkish request of accession, the Community's response and the current state of affairs in this relationship marked by ups and downs will be looked at in a critical analysis prior to discussing a number of factors which we feel continue to affect the future course of the Turco-Community relations. We shall argue that these intertwined factors also make a sober reconsideration of the Turkish case imperative in light of the new situation which represents a radically different landscape than the one that prevailed up till the 1989 'Avis' of the Commission. The principal factors to be highlighted are as follows: the economic fitness; the political credibility; the security dimension; the ever-present Greek obstruction; the religious 'bias'; the new openings for Turkish diplomacy and economy in the Turkic Central Asian and Trans-Caucasian Republics as well as in the Balkans; the concerns of the Community institutions; and how the mainstream EC powers view Turkey. Then comes the final concluding chapter in which an effort will be made to analyse some future options ahead of the Turkish-EC relations as well as to explore the best possible and realistic model of integration for Turkey at a time when the enlargement process has started once again moving. Since the present day world situation is uncertain and still in the process of unfolding, it is difficult to predict anything with confidence even for short term. Our analysis will therefore draw, to great extent, upon educated guesses, press commentaries (particularly for the updated assessment because academic works are still scanty on this subject) and interviews. We shall argue that in the dynamic context of international relations, the re-launching of the Turco-Community relations is more pressing than ever. It goes without saying that the continuing changes in the European architecture and in the Turkish priorities will remain our major focus throughout this paper.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
of this article
ULUSLARARASI iLiSKiLER-STRATEJiK ÇALISMALAR'a dön
